2026 NBA Awards Tracker

Methodology

NBA Awards Tracker uses a Bayesian probability model to project award winners based on the sample of publicly confirmed ballots. Here's how it works.

What Counts as a "Confirmed Ballot"

A ballot is confirmed when a media member with an official NBA award vote publicly reveals their picks. Sources include:

• Published articles or columns listing their ballot
• Podcast discussions where they state their picks
• Tweets or social media posts revealing votes
• TV/radio segments where they announce their selections

We only include named voters — no anonymous leaks or speculation. Each ballot must be clearly attributed to a specific media member.

Scoring Weights

MVP uses a 10-7-5-3-1 point system:

• 1st place vote = 10 points
• 2nd place vote = 7 points
• 3rd place vote = 5 points
• 4th place vote = 3 points
• 5th place vote = 1 point

DPOY, ROY, MIP, Sixth Man, and Coach of the Year all use a 5-3-1 system:

• 1st place vote = 5 points
• 2nd place vote = 3 points
• 3rd place vote = 1 point

All-NBA also uses 5-3-1 for 1st Team, 2nd Team, and 3rd Team selections.

Bayesian Win Probability Model

Our model accounts for the fundamental uncertainty of projecting from a small sample. Here's the approach:

• Point share: Each candidate's percentage of total confirmed points (weighted 55%)
• First-place share: Each candidate's share of first-place votes (weighted 45%)
• Confidence factor: Based on how many ballots are confirmed vs. the ~100 total expected, scaled with a power function (exponent 0.7) to avoid overconfidence early
• Prior: An equal prior probability is blended in, weighted inversely to confidence — with few ballots, probabilities stay closer to uniform; with many ballots, they converge to observed vote shares

Why Probabilities Look Conservative

With only 10-20 of ~100 ballots confirmed, our model intentionally stays conservative. A candidate with 80% of confirmed points won't show 80% win probability — because 80+ ballots remain unknown. As more ballots come in, probabilities sharpen dramatically toward the observed trend.

This is by design: we'd rather be calibrated than sensational. Betting odds (shown for comparison) tend to be much more aggressive because they factor in additional information beyond confirmed ballots.

Clinch Math

We also calculate when a candidate has mathematically clinched an award — meaning no combination of remaining votes can overtake them. This accounts for the maximum points any trailing candidate could earn from remaining ballots.

The 65-Game Rule

Players must play in at least 65 regular-season games to be eligible for MVP, DPOY, MIP, and All-NBA. This rule does NOT apply to Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, or Clutch Player of the Year.

Data Refresh

Vote data auto-refreshes from our Google Sheets source when you load the page. The data indicator at the top shows when the last refresh occurred. Hardcoded fallback data is included in case the live feed is unavailable.