Real-time vote tracking with Bayesian win probability projections.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the 2026 NBA MVP race with 319 points across 35 confirmed ballots, including 27 first-place votes. He's the overwhelming favorite at -7000 betting odds, with our Bayesian model projecting approximately a 77% win probability.
If SGA wins, he'll become just the 15th player in NBA history to win back-to-back MVPs, joining legends like LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokić.
SGA led the Thunder to a 64-18 record and the #1 seed in the West while averaging 31.1 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.3 rebounds on an absurd 55.3% field goal percentage. His efficiency as a high-volume scorer is historically elite.
Nikola Jokić made history by becoming the first player ever to lead the NBA in both rebounds AND assists in the same season (12.9 RPG, 10.7 APG). He has 7 first-place votes and 213 total points.
Victor Wembanyama barely made the 65-game eligibility cutoff but earned recognition with 1 first-place vote and 147 points, anchored by his historic defensive impact (3.6 BPG for the 3rd straight year).
Recent back-to-back MVPs: Giannis (2019-20), Curry (2015-16), LeBron (2009-10, 2012-13), Nash (2005-06), and Duncan (2002-03). Only 14 players have ever achieved this feat. SGA appears poised to be the 15th.
SGA is -7000 at FanDuel (implied 98.6% probability). Jokić and Wembanyama are both at +5000 (implied 2.0% each). The books consider this race effectively over.