Real-time vote tracking with Bayesian win probability projections.
The 2026 NBA Rookie of the Year race is the closest in years, with former Duke teammates Kon Knueppel and Cooper Flagg separated by just 6 points across 32 confirmed ballots. Knueppel leads 113-107 in total points, with both players earning exactly 16 first-place votes.
Kon Knueppel (Charlotte Hornets) is averaging 16.8 PPG on 47.3% shooting with 4.5 APG. He leads all rookies — and the entire league — in made three-pointers, drawing Steph Curry comparisons for his shooting efficiency. His impact on winning has been the deciding factor for many voters.
Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) is averaging 18.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 3.4 APG. He's asked to do more as a scorer, plays elite defense for a rookie, and has had explosive individual scoring performances. Flagg leads in raw stats but Knueppel leads in efficiency and team impact.
The 6-point gap is potentially the tightest ROY race in modern history. For comparison, the Scottie Barnes vs Evan Mobley race in 2022 had a 23-point margin, and the Luka vs Trae debate in 2019 wasn't even close in votes (Luka won by 310 points).
CBS Sports' panel split exactly 3-3 between the two. This one is genuinely up for grabs.
Knueppel is favored at -180 (implied 64.3%), with Flagg at +150 (implied 40.0%). The books lean Knueppel but acknowledge this race is far from over.